Brexit… The likely fate of Cornwall Conservative MPs at the next election. 30/08/2019 The above model shows what happens with a move away from Conservatives and towards the Brexit Party as the Conservatives are punished by the electorate for having failed to deliver…
Brexit… Theresa May’s Great Divide 13/02/2019 In the early part of 2019, it would appear that Theresa May (without any apparent effort) has effectively sundered the Conservative Party into two irreconcilable groups. The first group is…
Brexit… Tory MPs and the UKIP Menace 25/09/2018 In an earlier article, I suggested that there is an impending electoral disaster for the Conservatives on the scale of the 1997 General Election - i.e. a potential loss of…
Beyond Brexit… Conservative Apocalypse? A Risk Assessment for Conservative Constituencies. 08/06/201810/06/2018 Note 1: This article was first published in Country Squire Magazine on 8th June 2018. Note 2: Schedules 1 and 2 which are lists of Conservative MPs who have been…
Brexit… IpsosMORI – we need to talk about your tiny sample size. 24/05/201624/05/2016 Summary and Conclusions The EU referendum on 23rd June is attracting a great deal of media attention. With it has come a continuous flurry of polls from the mainstream polling…
Opinion polls Why we should not believe anything the polls tell us. 18/04/201618/04/2016 Another day and another opinion poll, this time from ComRes in The Sun. The details of the poll are not yet available on their website, but ComRes usually do phone…
